Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.110954 0.123673 0.136845 0.151477 0.167242 0.183685 0.202101
2024-10-13 0.090497 0.109170 0.129613 0.153517 0.180556 0.210052 0.244517
2024-10-20 0.075706 0.098127 0.123918 0.155437 0.192565 0.234565 0.285309
2024-10-27 0.064565 0.089390 0.119246 0.157173 0.203420 0.257339 0.324277
2024-11-03 0.060481 0.088381 0.123162 0.168709 0.225743 0.293766 0.379932
2024-11-10 0.052603 0.081422 0.118731 0.169139 0.233967 0.313048 0.415209
2024-11-17 0.046989 0.076697 0.116497 0.171783 0.244564 0.335078 0.453972
2024-11-24 0.041541 0.071504 0.113027 0.172275 0.252020 0.353007 0.487721
2024-12-01 0.039808 0.071410 0.116357 0.181801 0.271347 0.386265 0.541291
2024-12-08 0.038229 0.071317 0.119538 0.191077 0.290444 0.419510 0.595384
2024-12-15 0.034517 0.067502 0.116987 0.192026 0.298085 0.437756 0.630268
2024-12-22 0.030060 0.061995 0.111475 0.188325 0.298998 0.446900 0.653236
2024-12-29 0.028725 0.061723 0.114120 0.196974 0.317962 0.481398 0.711416
2025-01-05 0.026558 0.059827 0.114155 0.201807 0.331786 0.509456 0.761916
2025-01-12 0.024287 0.057488 0.113296 0.205199 0.343605 0.535035 0.809640
2025-01-19 0.022096 0.055024 0.112013 0.207791 0.354239 0.559129 0.855745
2025-01-26 0.022228 0.056993 0.118171 0.222175 0.382550 0.608352 0.936896
2025-02-02 0.019988 0.054029 0.115741 0.222792 0.390329 0.628826 0.978877
2025-02-09 0.018399 0.052172 0.115048 0.226078 0.402093 0.655055 1.029123
2025-02-16 0.016578 0.049578 0.112834 0.226699 0.409710 0.675393 1.071381
2025-02-23 0.016431 0.050621 0.117223 0.238376 0.434556 0.720906 1.149500
2025-03-02 0.016236 0.051523 0.121362 0.249713 0.459059 0.766235 1.227877
2025-03-09 0.014802 0.049365 0.119600 0.250873 0.467528 0.788146 1.273169